प्रजनन र विवाहका मापक

Nepal's fertility was high for decades and has fallen only gradually, while mortality has fallen sharply. The total fertility rate (TFR) was about 5.1 births per woman in 1991, 4.6 in 1996 and 2.1 in NDHS 2022, which is about the replacement level. Life expectancy rose from about 54 years (1991) to about 70 years, and under-five mortality fell from about 118 (1996) to about 33 per 1,000 live births (2022). The census 2078 recorded an annual growth rate of 0.92 percent.

A. High fertility (in the past decades)

Causes

1. Early and universal marriage: many girls marry before 20, which lengthens the childbearing period (median age at first marriage of women is still only about 18 to 19 years).
2. Son preference: families keep having children until they get a son.
3. Low education and awareness of women: fertility is higher among women with no schooling than among those with secondary or higher education.
4. Poverty and the need for child labour and old-age support: children are seen as economic assets, and fear of infant death encourages replacement births. Unmet need for family planning in remote areas adds to this.

Consequences

1. Rapid population growth and a young age structure, with a large dependent child population.
2. Pressure on education, health, food and jobs, because more schools, services and employment are required.
3. Poor maternal and child health, since frequent pregnancies harm mothers and children.
4. Poverty, low savings and environmental pressure on land and forests, which push people to migrate (for example from the hills to the Terai and abroad).

B. Declining mortality

Causes

1. Better health services: more health posts, safe motherhood programmes and skilled birth attendance.
2. Immunisation and disease control, such as polio and measles vaccination, oral rehydration therapy and the Vitamin A programme run with female community health volunteers.
3. Improved nutrition, drinking water and sanitation.
4. Rising education and income, and better roads and transport to reach services.

Consequences

1. Higher life expectancy and a growing elderly population.
2. Faster population growth while fertility is still high, because births outnumber deaths.
3. Lower infant and maternal mortality, so more children survive to adulthood and the workforce grows.
4. Greater demand for social security, pensions and health care, and in the long run a changing dependency ratio as the population ages.

Example: between 1996 and 2022 Nepal's TFR fell from 4.6 to 2.1 and under-five mortality from about 118 to 33 per 1,000 live births; this combined fall in fertility and mortality is the demographic transition now under way in Nepal.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = $\dfrac{\text{Total number of live births in a year}}{\text{Total mid-year population}} \times 1000$

Problem (imagined):

In a certain municipality of Nepal, the population on 1 January 2021 was 4,80,000 and on 31 December 2021 it was 5,20,000. During the year 2021, a total of 12,000 live births were recorded in the municipality. Calculate the crude birth rate (CBR) of the municipality for the year 2021.

Given data:

• Population at the beginning of the year ($P_1$) = 4,80,000
• Population at the end of the year ($P_2$) = 5,20,000
• Number of live births during the year ($B$) = 12,000

Formula:

$CBR = \frac{\text{Number of live births in a year}}{\text{Mid-year total population}} \times 1000$

Solution:

First, find the mid-year population:

$P = \frac{P_1 + P_2}{2} = \frac{4{,}80{,}000 + 5{,}20{,}000}{2} = \frac{10{,}00{,}000}{2} = 5{,}00{,}000$

Now,

$CBR = \frac{12{,}000}{5{,}00{,}000} \times 1000 = 0.024 \times 1000 = 24$

Result:

The crude birth rate of the municipality for the year 2021 is 24 live births per 1000 mid-year population.

Interpretation: This means that for every 1,000 people living in the municipality in 2021, 24 babies were born alive during that year. Since the CBR is fairly high, it indicates a relatively high level of fertility in the municipality.

General Fertility Rate (GFR)

Meaning: The general fertility rate is the number of live births occurring in a year per 1,000 women of reproductive age (15–49 years) in a population. Unlike the crude birth rate, it counts only women who are actually capable of bearing children, so it is a more refined measure of fertility.

Formula:

$\text{GFR} = \frac{\text{Total number of live births in a year}}{\text{Mid-year female population aged 15–49 years}} \times 1000$

The Problem

In a district of Nepal, the mid-year population in 2080 BS was recorded as follows:

Calculate the general fertility rate of the district.

Solution

Given:

• Total live births in the year = 11,520
• Mid-year female population aged 15–49 years = 96,000

Formula:

$\text{GFR} = \frac{\text{Total live births}}{\text{Women aged 15–49}} \times 1000$

Substitution:

$\text{GFR} = \frac{11{,}520}{96{,}000} \times 1000$

$\text{GFR} = 0.12 \times 1000$

$\text{GFR} = 120$

Result: The general fertility rate of the district is 120 live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age.

Interpretation

This means that for every 1,000 women aged 15–49 years in the district, 120 live births took place during 2080 BS. Since GFR is based only on women in the childbearing age group, it gives a truer picture of the fertility level of the district than the crude birth rate, which is affected by the age–sex structure of the whole population.